Tag Archives: bayesian

Does A Modern Ecologist Need To Become A Bayesian?

Image Credit: 2010 Jee & Rani Nature Photography, CC BY-SA 4.0, Image Cropped

This question comes from Marney Pratt (@marney_pratt) as she noted that a recent paper tracking trends in ecology papers shows the use of Bayesian statistics increasing over time. (Before we get going, if you want a refresher about what exactly Bayesian thought entails, check out this previous post.) Anderson et al. say:

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Model Mis-specification: All The Ways Things Can Go Wrong…

Image Credit: Grand Velas Riviera Maya, CC BY-SA 2.0, Image Cropped

In ecological studies, the quality of the data we use is often a concern. For example, individual animals may be cryptic and hard to detect. Certain sites that we should really be sampling might be hard to reach, so we end up sampling more accessible, less relevant ones. Or it could even be something as simple as recording a raven when we’re really seeing a crow (check our #CrowOrNo if you have problems with that last one). Modeling approaches aim to mitigate the effect on our results of these shortcomings in the data collection.

However, even if we had perfect data, when we decide how to model that data, we have to make choices that may not match the reality of the scenario we are trying to understand. Model mis-specification is a generic term for when our model doesn’t match the processes which have generated the data we are trying to understand. It can lead to biased estimates of covariates and incorrect uncertainty quantification.

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