Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations? (2020) Simmonds et al., Ecology Letters, https://doi.org/110.1111/ele.13603
When we think of climate change we tend to think about extreme weather events and melting ice caps, but the way in which our environment is changing is giving the planet more than just unseasonal weather. Phenology (the timing of biological events in nature) dictates when an organism begins a given part of its life cycle, and changes in phenology are one of the most frequent responses to climate change. Take bees and flowers; bees feed on the flowers of certain plant species, and in turn spread the plants’ pollen for them. They both depend on the other being around at the same time, and if flowers bloomed too early, or if the bees came around before the flowers were “ready” for them, both parties would suffer.
Such a mismatch is known as an asynchrony, and it is hypothesized to cause population declines due to the harmful impacts on one or more of the interacting species involved (see another recent post to understand how the loss of one or more interactions can lead to cascading effects throughout a local community). While many theoretical models have investigated these processes, today’s authors wanted to combine such models with long-term data on the phenology and population size of great tits (Parus major). Great tits rely on a small period of insect abundance to feed their young, and as such the more closely they can match the needs of their young to the abundance of insect populations the more they will increase their fitness.Read more